Friday, June 9, 2017

China MOA Ag S&D Estimates June 2017

China's Ministry of Agriculture cut its estimate of 2017/18 corn output by 1.5 million metric tons in its June "China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" (CASDE) report, based on drought conditions in parts of northeastern China. The yield was cut slightly due to hail that damaged new corn plants in some areas. The new estimate of 2017/18 corn output is about 8 mmt less than 2016/17, and nearly 13 mmt less than 2015/16. MOA now estimates that demand for corn will exceed supply by 1.7 mmt in 2017/18.

China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, June 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 June 2017/18 May 2017/18 June
Planted area 1000 ha 38,119 36,760 35,840 35,590
Harvested area 1000 ha 38,119 36,760 35,840 35,590
Yield Kg/ha 5,893 5,973 5,948 5,947
Production MMT 224.63 219.57 213.18 211.65
Imports MMT 5.52 1 1 1
Consumption MMT 194.09 210.72 214.07 214.07
--Food MMT 7.65 7.82 7.89 7.89
--Feed MMT 121.01 133.03 135.03 135.03
--Industrial use MMT 54.17 58.25 59.75 59.75
--Seed MMT 1.7 1.61 1.57 1.57
--Loss and other MMT 9.56 10.01 9.83 9.83
Exports MMT 1 0.3 0.3 0.3
Surplus MMT 36.05 9.55 -0.19 -1.72
*2015/16 import volume shown in CASDE should be 3.2 mmt

The decline in corn area estimated by CASDE is 3.2 percent, slightly less than the 4 percent drop estimated by the National Bureau of Statistics planting intentions survey earlier this year. Another survey of over 5200 farmers in 22 provinces conducted in April found farmers planned to cut corn acreage by 10.9 percent.

The Ministry of Agriculture sent drought mitigation teams this week to western Liaoning, southeast Inner Mongolia, western Jilin, western Heilongjiang, northern Hebei and the Shandong peninsula. These areas have suffered from low rainfall, high temperatures, and windy conditions since April.

CASDE's June soybean S&D is unchanged from May. Some farmers in western Liaoning and easter Inner Mongolia were able to replant soybeans after rains came May 21-23, but young soybean plants were damaged by a late frost in parts of Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang. Soybean area is setimated to be up 10.4% in 2017/18. Imports are expected to hit 89 mmt for 2016/17 and 93 mmt for 2017/18.

China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, June 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 June 2017/18 May 2017/18 June
Planted area 1000 ha 6,590 7,156 7,899 7,899
Harvested area 1000 ha 6,590 7,150 7,899 7,899
Yield Kg/ha 1762 1758 1785 1785
Production MMT 11.61 12.57 14.1 14.1
Imports MMT 83.23 89.45 93.16 93.16
Consumption MMT 96.67 103.69 108.59 108.59
--Crushing MMT 82.89 89.01 92.50 92.50
--Food MMT 10.35 11.18 12.04 12.04
--Seed MMT 0.54 0.6 0.6 0.6
Loss and other MMT 2.89 2.9 3.45 3.45
Exports MMT 0.12 0.14 0.22 0.22
Surplus MMT -1.95 -1.81 -1.55 -1.55

Cotton yield for 2017/18 was raised slightly, on good growing conditions. Imports were increased 100,000 mt to 1.1 mmt. Cotton stocks are expected to fall nearly 1.6 mmt in 2017/18.

China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, June 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 June 2017/18 May 2017/18 June
Begin inventory MMT 12.8 11.11 9.23 9.23
Planted area 1000 ha 3,267 3,100 3,200 3,200
Yield Kg/ha 1,510 1,555 1,523 1,572
Production MMT 4.93 4.82 4.88 5.03
Imports MMT 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.10
Consumption MMT 7.59 7.69 7.59 7.69
Exports MMT 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
End Inventory MMT 9.13 9.23 7.61 7.66

2016/17 China edible oil production is estimated at 26.57 mmt, up 270,000 mt from last month’s estimate. Cottonseed and sunflower oil production is expected to rise because of better cotton yields, and increased sunflower imports. Soybean oil production was reduced by 40,000 mt due to a downward adjustment in the proportion of domestic soybeans used for oil.

China edible oils supply and demand (Min Agriculture, June 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 June 2017/18 May 2017/18 June
Production MMT 25.29 26.57 26.85 27.07
--Soy oil MMT 14.74 15.58 15.92 15.92
--Rapeseed oil MMT 5.6 5.64 5.71 5.71
--Peanut oil MMT 3 3.18 3.24 3.24
Imports MMT 5.81 5.6 6.2 6.2
--Palm oil MMT 3.39 3.25 3.75 3.75
--Rapeseed oil MMT 0.77 0.75 0.85 0.85
--Soy oil MMT 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.58
Consumption MMT 31.29 31.46 31.63 31.63
--Urban MMT 21.01 21.5 21.65 21.65
--Rural MMT 10.28 9.96 9.98 9.98
Exports MMT 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
Surplus MMT -0.32 0.58 1.3 1.52

The 2017/18 estimate of sugar area is 14.72 million hectares, up 9% from 2016/17. Sugar cane area is estimated up 7.9% from last year; sugar beet area is up 16.1%. This month’s estimate of 2016/17 sugar imports is 3 mmt, reduced 500,000 mt from last month’s estimate. The forecast for 2017/18 sugar imports is 3.2 mmt, adjusted down 300,000 mt from last month. The main reason is the implementation of safeguard measures starting from May 22. Duties will be assessed on imports of sugar outside of the tariff rate quota for 3 years.

China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, June 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 June 2017/18 May 2017/18 June
Planted area 1000 ha 1423 1351 1472 1472
--sugar cane 1000 ha 1295 1183 1277 1277
--sugar beets 1000 ha 128 168 195 195
Yield




--sugar cane MT/ha 60.3 60 60 60
--sugar beets MT/ha 53.85 52.5 52.5 52.5
Sugar output MMT 8.7 9.29 10.47 10.47
--sugar cane MMT 7.85 8.24 9.23 9.23
--sugar beets MMT 0.85 1.05 1.24 1.24
Imports MMT 3.73 3 3.5 3.2
Consumption MMT 15.2 15 15 15
Exports MMT -2.92 0.07 0.07 0.07
Surplus MMT -2.32 -2.78 -1.1 -1.4