Thursday, August 11, 2016

China MOA S&D Estimates (Aug)

China will produce more corn than it consumes again during 2016/17, according to the latest supply and demand estimates from China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA). Estimates of Chinese corn prices have been revised downward, and MOA expects drawdowns of Chinese soybean and cotton stockpiles to cut into imports of those commodities.

This week, MOA released its second monthly "CASDE" (China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) which includes balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, vegetable oils, and sugar. The report excludes rice and wheat.

The August report increased the estimate of the 2016 Chinese corn crop to 216.5 million metric tons, up 2 mmt from the July estimate based on good weather that is expected to bump up the yield. Estimates of feed and industrial consumption of corn for 2016/17 were also increased, stimulated by falling prices in China. The estimates of corn prices for both 2015/16 and 2016/17 were revised downward from last month, as well. China's corn imports are expected to fall to 2.4 mmt in 2016/17. Corn prices are expected to be in the 1500-1650 yuan/mt range, down about 200 yuan from 2015/16.

China corn balance sheet (China Ministry of Ag, August 2016)
Item Unit 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Change from last month
Sown area 1000 HA 37,123 38,117 36,026
Yield KG/HA 5,809 5,892 6,010 58
Production Mil MT 215.70 224.58 216.51 2.24
Imports Mil MT 5.52 4.60 2.40
Consumption Mil MT 183.39 193.35 208.17 1.19
--food Mil MT 7.52 7.65 7.72
--feed Mil MT 112.56 120.61 132.68 0.69
--industrial Mil MT 52.57 53.97 56.35 0.50
--seed Mil MT 1.69 1.66 1.61
--waste and other Mil MT 9.05 9.56 9.81
Exports Mil MT 0.01 0.03 0.20
Inventory change Mil MT 37.82 36.00 10.38 0.89

While China's corn output will be less than last year, MOA expects China's corn inventory to increase again during 2016/17. The expected surplus of 10.38 mmt will be less than the 37.82 mmt surplus in 2014/15 and the 36 mmt surplus estimated for 2015/16. The estimate of the surplus for 2015/16 was revised downward this month due to progress in auctioning corn reserves. MOA expects a reduction in DDGS imports due to anti-dumping duties, which will "increase the value" of domestic DDGS and increase corn used for alcohol processing. MOA thinks domestic corn prices will fall below the C&F price of imported corn during 2016/17.

China corn prices (RMB per metric ton)
Description 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
production areas 2266 1800-1880 1500-1650
last month 1830-1930 1550-1750
C&F imports 1643 1500-1670 1600-1750
last month 1500-1670 1650-1850

MOA reduced its estimate of 2016/17 soybean imports by 1.5 mmt to 83.5 mmt. They also cut their estimates of soybean crush consumption. The government's injection of soybean reserves into the market will replace some imports. China's soybean production shrank to just 11.6 mmt for 2015/16 and will be up to 12.86 mmt for 2016/17, according to MOA.

China soybean balance sheet (China Ministry of Ag, July 2016)
Item Unit 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Change from last month
Area 1000 HA 6,800 6,590 7,156
Yield KG/HA 1,787 1,762 1,797 14.00
Production Mil MT 12.15 11.61 12.86 0.10
Imports Mil MT 78.35 82.49 83.50 -1.50
Consumption Mil MT 89.83 95.11 98.20 -1.22
--crushing Mil MT 77.34 81.98 84.00 -1.20
--food Mil MT 9.15 9.71 11.18
--seed Mil MT 0.50 0.54 0.56
--loss & other Mil MT 2.84 2.88 2.46 -0.02
Exports Mil MT 0.14 0.13 0.18
Inventory change Mil MT 0.53 -1.14 -2.02 -0.18

Soybean oil production for 2015/16 was adjusted downward due to a lower estimate of soybean imports, and the 2016/17 production estimate was reduced. MOA expects rapeseed imports to fall during 2016/17 as inspection and quarantine requirements are tightened.

China vegetable oils balance sheet (Min Ag, July 2016)
Item Unit 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Change from last month
Production Mil MT 26.12 25.28 25.28 -0.10
--Soy oil Mil MT 14.01 14.62 14.92 -0.23
--Rapeseed oil Mil MT 6.92 5.66 5.37 0.12
--Peanut oil Mil MT 3.03 3.01 3.08
Imports Mil MT 6.14 5.62 5.27
--Palm oil Mil MT 4.07 3.60 3.40
--Rapeseed oil Mil MT 0.73 0.82 0.75
--Soy oil Mil MT 0.77 0.65 0.58
Consumption Mil MT 30.80 31.17 31.37 -0.01
--Urban Mil MT 20.17 20.41 20.55
--Rural Mil MT 10.64 10.76 10.83 0.01
Exports Mil MT 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.02
Inventory change Mil MT 1.31 -0.13 -0.96 -0.12

Cotton production has been adjusted upward slightly based on good rain and temperature in Xinjiang. Imports will be just 920,000 mt during 2015/16 and 950,000 in 2016/17, according to the MOA report, as China tries to unload its inventory of cotton. Cotton reserves will decline to 9.58 mmt at the end of 2016/17, down from their peak of 12.8 mmt at the end of 2014/15.

China cotton balance sheet (China Ministry of Agriculture, July 2016)
Item Unit 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Change from last month
Beg. Inventory Mil MT 12.40 12.80 11.41 -0.25
Area 1000 HA 4,219 3,433 3,100 33.00
Yield KG/HA 1,460 1,514 1,530 20.00
Production Mil MT 6.16 5.20 4.74 0.11
Imports Mil MT 1.67 0.92 0.95 0.02
Consumption Mil MT 7.40 7.24 7.50 0.38
Exports Mil MT 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.01
End Inventory Mil MT 12.80 11.66 9.58 -0.51

MOA adjusted sugar consumption downward by 100,000 mt due to rising sugar prices and falling prices of corn-based sweetener substitutes. 

China sugar balance sheet (Min Ag, July 2016)
Item Unit 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Area 1000 ha 1579 1435 1433
--sugar cane 1000 ha 1457 1301 1270
--sugar beets 1000 ha 122 134 163
Yield MT/ha 54.6 54.38 54.38
--sugar cane MT/ha 61.8 60.75 60.00
--sugar beets MT/ha 47.4 48.00 48.75
Sugar production Mil. MT 10.56 8.70 9.90
--sugar cane Mil. MT 9.82 7.85 8.85
--sugar beets Mil. MT 0.74 0.85 1.05
Sugar imports Mil. MT 4.81 3.50 3.50
Sugar consumption Mil. MT 15.1 15.20 15.30
Sugar exports Mil. MT 0.06 0.16 0.07
Inventory change Mil. MT 0.21 -3.16 -1.97

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